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What an irony that the Majority Bahujan Eighty Five Percent Masses and the Excluded Communities are Deep into Food Insecurity with Rocketing Food Inflation, Jewellery sales likely to spurt 30-35% on Dhanteras! Consumer goods are also in High Demand!

What an irony that the Majority Bahujan Eighty Five Percent Masses and the Excluded Communities are Deep into Food Insecurity with Rocketing Food Inflation, Jewellery sales likely to spurt 30-35% on Dhanteras! Consumer goods are also in High Demand! The Brahaminical Economy Exclusive has a real Bull time beyond SENSEX!High inflation to pinch festivities!But the Upsurge of credit based market Economy drive the Middle class and Lower Middle into the market and those without Purchasing Power are stranded in the Rush. DHANTERAS has become a ritual breaking barriers which has proved to be the bestever Marketing Strategy! Gold prices have Nothing to do it and Hindutva revival has a cake walk!his Diwali and Dhanteras people from middle- and low-income groups will be spending up to 40 per cent less, courtesy high inflation which is eating into their monthly budgets, says a study by industry body Assocham.

NSE, BSE to trade in gold ETFs till 8 p.m. on Dhanteras!


Cabinet to take up wage board issue on Oct. 25: Kharge


Amicus report lays the ground for chargesheeting Narendra Modi



Indian Holocaust My Father`s Life and Time - SEVEN HUNDRED Forty Nine!

Palash Biswas

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Dhanteras is celebrated by the Hindus all over India and across the world as well in the month of October-November.

What an irony that the Majority Bahujan Eighty Five Percent Masses and the Excluded Communities are Deep into Food Insecurity with Rocketing Food Inflation, Jewellery sales likely to spurt 30-35% on Dhanteras! Consumer goods are also in High Demand! The Brahaminical Economy Exclusive has a real Bull time beyond SENSEX!High inflation to pinch festivities!But the Upsurge of credit based market Economy drive the Middle class and Lower Middle into the market and those without Purchasing Power are stranded in the Rush. DHANTERAS has become a ritual breaking barriers which has proved to be the bestever Marketing Strategy! Gold prices have Nothing to do it and Hindutva revival has a cake walk!his Diwali and Dhanteras people from middle- and low-income groups will be spending up to 40 per cent less, courtesy high inflation which is eating into their monthly budgets, says a study by industry body Assocham.

In Eastern India, before the Neo Liberal age, DHANTERAS or Karawa Chowth were meant the rituals of Cow Belt Dark Age! But it is now Ultra Modern Fashion thanks to Media Hype aligned with Ambush Marketing Home to Home! The bonus has to be INVESTED and those who have not the previllege, have to depend on either credit or Plastic Money or hard Cash!Thus, the Free Market Economy has EMPOWERED the Brahaminical Hegemony and the Micro Minority Ruling Class Dominating the Market with the Purchasing Power from heaven!

The gold rush across India just before Monday's Dhanteras festival has made jewellers confident of increasing their business, though prices of the yellow metal show volatility and hover high.
Dhanteras is considered a day auspicious to buy gold.

Gold bullion and coins are in high demand along with jewellery as more and more people now turn to the precious metal as a safe investment option at a time the country's stock markets seem unstable amid the global economic uncertainty, jewellers said.

"Gold jewellery business has picked up now with the international prices declining by about $300 per ounce in two months. Buyers are coming back to the market following some stability in the system for a few days," Tanishq Vice President (Retail) Sandeep Kulhali told IANS over phone from Hyderabad.
"We hope that business will be at its peak this weekend just before Dhanteras. The market will bounce back," he added.

Since the Navratri festival, the gold business has been doing very well, he added.

Gaja Jewellery, one of India's largest manufacturers and exporters of handcrafted jewellery, seconded Kulhali.

"Demand for gold coins has gone up by 50 percent compared to last year, as people have started realizing that investing in 24 carat gold is profitable as it is very liquidable (asset). There have been advance booking orders for gold coins," Gaja Jewellery Marketing Head Rahul Singh said.

The fall in gold prices in international markets from about $1,900 an ounce in September to about $1,600 an ounce in October has also boosted the buying spree.

"Gold business in the first quarter (April-June) was phenomenal. In August and September demand was negative compared to the same period last year as there were no weddings in September," Kulhali stated.

"In September there was also a huge volatility in the global gold prices. So people were holding back their purchase," Khulhali said.

Bullion and coins of the yellow metal and also gold exchange traded funds are in high demand as people feel investment in the precious metal is safe in the long-term, Khulhali noted.

General public is not affected by high gold prices, and there will be maximum number of footfalls in jewellery shops across the country Oct 24, Jaysukh Parekh of Ramesh Chandra Parekh Jewellers said.

"Dhanteras is auspicious time for capital investment," he asserted.

"Big ticket small time investors are now investing in gold as the prices of the precious metal shows an overall upward trend and a positive outlook amid the current economic uncertainty," Regional Chairman of the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council Pankaj Parekh, told IANS.

Dipankar Dasgupta, former professor of economics at the Indian Statistical Institute, echoed Parekh.

"As the general public in the country cannot invest in foreign currencies, it is expected that they will invest in gold as currently there is volatility in the stock markets," he said.
While earlier Dhanteras was celebrated only in northern and southern India, now the festival is celebrated across the country, Rahul Singh said.

On the occasion of Dhanteras, an auspicious day for buying gold, the country's two leading bourses NSE and BSE will conduct extended trading till 8 pm tomorrow in Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
Besides, the two bourses have also decided to waive off the transactions charges for all trades in gold ETFs on this day to cash upon the investor demand for yellow metal on this occasion.
The gold ETFs track the gold prices and each unit of these ETFs is generally equivalent to one gram of gold.
It is considered auspicious to buy valuables like gold on occasions like Dhanteras, Diwali and Akshay Tritiya in India.
Gold ETFs, where returns are linked to the domestic price of physical gold but spare the investors from the trouble of buying and keeping the yellow metal in physical form, have been gaining ground among investors in past few years.
The gold ETFs enable investment in the precious metal on the stock exchange platform in an electronic mode.
While the global markets have been in turmoil over the past one year, and asset classes like stocks giving huge negative returns, the gold prices have rallied smartly.
Tracking the gold prices, the gold ETFs have appreciated by about 33 per cent since last Dhanteras, although the prices have fallen somewhat in past one month.
"Gold ETF trading timings have been extended to match the timing with the bullion market. It would help increase some volume in the segment," Kejriwal Research and Investment Services Director Arun Kejriwal said.
The trading in gold ETFs would begin as per the normal daily schedule at 9 am tomorrow, but the two bourses have extended the market close timing to 8 pm to provide the investors additional time for trade in yellow metal through this route on the day of Dhanteras.
Trading in other market segments would be as per the normal trading hours from 9 am to 3.30 pm.
The extended trading would be allowed in gold ETFs of Axis, Goldman Sachs, HDFC, ICICI Pru, Kotak, Quantum, Reliance, Religare, SBI, UTI and Birla Sun Life mutual funds.

Cabinet to take up wage board issue on Oct. 25: Kharge

The issue of Justice Majithia wage boards for journalists and non-journalists employees will come up before the Cabinet on October 25, Union Labour Minister Mallikarjuna Kharge said on Sunday.
"The issue will come up in the next Cabinet meeting on October 25," he told reporters Coonoor on the sidelines of the annual conference of the United Planters Assoication of South India (UPASI). When pointed out that the issue was long pending, Mr. Kharge said, "We hope it will be solved now."
The report of the wage boards was submitted to the Union Government in December last year.
On October 11, the Supreme Court refused to restrain the Union Cabinet from taking any decision on the wage boards' recommendations turning down pleas by various newspaper managements to do so.

Court: Cabinet can decide on Majithia wage board report

LEGAL CORRESPONDENT
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The Supreme Court on Wednesday permitted the Union Cabinet to take a decision on implementing the recommendations of the Justice G.R. Majithia Wage Board for journalists and non-journalists.
Any decision would, however, be subject to the outcome of the case filed by ABP Pvt. Ltd.; the Indian Newspaper Society; Bennett Coleman & Co. Ltd., and two others challenging the board's final report submitted in December 2010, said a Bench of Justices Dalveer Bhandari and Deepak Verma.
Senior counsel Colin Gonsalves made a mention that the cases scheduled for hearing on Wednesday were not listed, and sought early hearing as the Cabinet had to take a decision on the proposals.
Additional Solicitor-General Parag Tripathi said the Cabinet wanted to consider the wage board report but it could not take any decision as the matter was pending in court. At this, Justice Bhandari told him: "The Cabinet can always consider the issue. No one is preventing you [the Cabinet] from taking a decision."
Senior counsel Fali Nariman, appearing for ABP Pvt. Ltd., publisher of The Telegraph and other newspapers, said any Cabinet decision would be subject to the final orders of the court.
Justice Bhandari said: "All decisions are subject to our orders. We need not say that."
The Bench directed that the matter be listed for final hearing on October 11, and that the parties complete their submissions in the meantime.
The newspaper managements had argued that the wage board recommendations, if implemented, would cause chaos in the industry. They also challenged the validity of the Working Journalists and Other Newspaper Employees (Conditions of Service and Miscellaneous Provisions) Act, under which the board was formed, and wanted it declared null and void and ultra vires the Constitution. They sought a direction to restrain the Centre from taking any decision based on the board's "faulty and flawed" recommendations.
The Centre, in its response to the first petitioner, ABP Pvt. Ltd., justified the report and said the wage structure had been determined on the basis of the employer's capacity to pay. Though it was constituted specifically to fix or revise wages, the board, in its wisdom, made recommendations on retirement age and other issues also. The Centre rejected the charge that the recommendations would infringe the petitioner's right to freedom of speech and expression guaranteed under the Constitution. The petitioner's apprehensions at this stage were premature and unfounded, it said.
Keywords: Majithia Wage Board

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http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2472787.ece

High gold price, ruling at Rs 26,500 per 10 grams, is unlikely to deter jewellery buyers during the days leading to Dhanteras and traders are expecting a robust season with around 30-35 percent spurt in sales.

"We expect jewellery sales to grow up to 35 per cent, especially in the light and medium weight category as well as the coins category," Shree Ganesh Jewellery House Marketing and Communications Head Rahul Singh told PTI here.

Since the past few days, he said, there has been a spike in sales and the prevailing high prices has in fact has boosted the sales.

Last year, Shree Ganesh's three stores alone had generated Rs 6-crore business on Dhanteras, the Hindu festival considered auspicious for buying precious metals, including jewellery, as well as other alloy products like automobiles.

"With 10 stores this year we are expecting about Rs 11-12-crore business," Singh added.

Echoing the view, Gitanjali Group Chairman and Managing Director Mehul Choksi said the demand has been picking up since the past few days and will peak during Dhanteras (which falls on October 24).

"We are expecting about 20-25 per cent growth in terms of volume and up to 60 percent in terms of value," he said.

During the four days leading to Dhanteras, the Gitanjali Group is expecting around Rs 400-crore business compared to Rs 250 crore last year, he said.

Explaining about sales in different categories, Choksi said, he is expecting 15 per cent in coins, 50 per cent in gold jewellery and 35-40 per cent in diamond jewellery.

Talking about demand ahead of the festive season, World Gold Council Managing Director (India and West East), Ajay Mitra said, "with prices stabilising, and Diwali and the wedding season around, demand is sure to see a surge. Demand for gold as an investment option as well as jewellery will rise too."

In its study 'Soaring prices dampen Diwali festivities', Assocham found that during the last year, middle and lower middle income families on an average spent a sum of Rs 3,000 -4,000 for shopping and, buying sweets and Diwali gifts.

"This Diwali, it has taken a severe hit as 85 per cent respondents said that the actual consumption expenditure has come down to less than Rs 1,800-2,400," it said.

Food inflation climbed to a six-month high of 10.60 per cent for the week ended October 8, as prices of fruits and vegetables went through the roof.

Gold and silver prices gained further at thebullion market on Saturday on good buying by stockists and investors amid surging festive offtake, supported by fuelling global cues.

Standard gold (99.5 purity) strengthened by Rs 220 per 10 grams to close at Rs 26,670 from Friday's closing level of Rs 26,450.

Pure gold (99.9 purity) hardened by Rs 225 per 10 grams to end at Rs 26,800 from Rs 26,575 previously. Silver ready (.999 fineness) jumped by Rs 750 per kg to conclude at Rs 53,650 from yesterday's close of Rs 52,900.

In New York, gold bounce backed after four-session fall on weak dollar and lower prices lured investors back to the precious metal.

Gold for December delivery added USD 23.20 to USD 1,636.10 an ounce on the Comex division of the NYMEX late yesterday.

Silver for December delivery rose 91 cents to USD 31.19 an ounce.

Both the precious metals, gold and silver, recovered sharply today on fresh buying by stockists and jewellers to meet the seasonal demandamid firm Asian cues. While gold surged Rs 375 to Rs 26,940 per 10 grams, silver rose by Rs 400 to Rs 52,600 per kg.

Traders said revival of buying by stockists and jewellers at existing lower levels to meet the seasonal demand and reports of a firming trend in Asian region mainly pushed up both gold and silver prices.

Gold in the Asian region, which normally sets the price trend on the domestic front, advanced by 0.6 per cent to USD 1,630.30 an ounce and silver by 1.3 per cent to USD 31 an ounce in Singapore.

On the domestic front, gold of 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity zoomed up by Rs 375 each to Rs 26,940 and Rs 26,800 per 10 grams, respectively. Sovereigns followed suit and rose by Rs 50 to Rs 22,000 per piece of eight grams.

Similarly, silver ready rose by Rs 400 to Rs 52,600 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 570 to Rs 52,350 per kg, respectively.

However, silver coins remained steady at Rs 59,000 for buying and Rs 60,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

How fair price shops have been made unfair …

An Article By Dr. R. Balasubramaniam (Special Investigation Officer on PDS for Karnataka Lokayukta)

There has been so much excitement about the recent 'Mining report' submitted by the former Lokayukta Justice Santosh Hegde that very few noticed another significant report that he had turned in a day earlier (i.e. on Tuesday, July 26, 2011).

This was the report on the investigation of Public Distribution System (PDS) in Karnataka that he commissioned me to investigate using his suo moto powers in September 2010.

While the mining report identified cumulative losses of around Rs.16,000 crore over the last few years and Rs. 1,800 over the last one year, the report on the PDS identified an annual economic loss of Rs. 1,737 crore. For all the noise that many are now creating about the Lokpal Bill and mining report, it is indeed puzzling why no one has expressed concern over this large scale looting of the money meant for the poor.

This article is an attempt to familiarise the readers about the PDS in India and Karnataka and the leakages and inefficiencies that I identified in my 10-month investigation.

The PDS is the largest food distribution network in the world. It is the government's major economic policy for ensuring food security to the poor. It has a network of more than four lakh Fair Price Shops (FPS) that distribute commodities at a cost of more than Rs. 15,000 crore to 16 crore households. The PDS infrastructure is such that the Central government is responsible for storage, transportation and bulk allocation of food grains, while the State is responsible for implementation / monitoring of FPSs and the identification of Below Poverty Line (BPL) population. Until 1997, PDS provided food subsidies to all consumers without any economic guidelines.

Financial cut-off was introduced in 1997 by the Central government. In order to target the consumers that need the food subsidies the most, the population was divided into two primary categories: Above Poverty Line (APL) and BPL, based on the poverty line defined by the Planning Commission. The BPL population receives food grains at highly subsidised prices in comparison to APL that receives food grains at prices closer to open market prices.

Another scheme was later introduced by the Central government: Antyodaya Anna Yojana Scheme (AAYS)-1, which provides even more highly subsidised commodities to the extremely poor and disadvantaged; six such disadvantaged groups or communities are given high priority under this scheme.

The truth is today, 57% of the PDS food grain does not reach the intended people. The Planning Commission has itself identified that for every Rs. 4 spent on PDS, only Re. 1 reaches the poor; which means 75% never reaches the poor.

The Food Subsidy Bill for 2006-07 for the Government of India was Rs. 242 billion; 36 million tons of grain was procured that year, and 31.6 million tons was distributed through ration shops. With such huge quantities of grain and large sums of money involved, it is natural that our political and bureaucratic class conspires to keep the system inefficient and easy to manipulate.

As per the Planning Commission, the total number of BPL families in Karnataka is 31.29 lakh whereas the Government of Karnataka claims that there are 96 lakh BPL families! Keeping the State's own poverty assessment criteria as the base, I found 44 lakh families who could be genuinely categorised as BPL.

How was this mess created? Between the months of December 2008 and March 2009, the Government of Karnataka under the directions of the highest political office mandated that any family could be called BPL, provided a self-declared affidavit saying that they were poor was given. Nowhere else in the world is poverty determined by a self-declared affidavit, but then Karnataka does have many firsts.

This was done keeping the May 2009 Parliament elections in mind. After reaping the benefits of such an overtly political but clearly shortsighted decision, the public exchequer and the citizenry are now left to grapple with the mess.

Today the Government has managed to distribute 1.6 crore ration cards whereas the total population of the State is itself only 1.2 crore families ! (Please note its families' population not individual population numbers) This means there are nearly 40 lakh ghost and ineligible cards.

After creating this mess, the department cleverly transferred the responsibility of cleaning it up to the citizens. They are now trying to cross-verify it by asking people to produce their ration cards along with electricity bills in urban areas and copy of the taxes paid on their property in rural areas.

Since the State claims it has 65 lakh more BPL families (it calls it extra BPL), it must dip into its own funds to meet the excess food security it wants to extend. So when the Centre gives rice at Rs. 5.40 per kg to the State, Karnataka further subsidises this by Rs. 2.40, so that it can sell rice to the BPL cardholders at Rs. 3 per kg. The Centre also gives rice at Rs. 8.30 a kg to APL families, but since Karnataka has slotted most of the APL families also as BPL, it is bound to give them rice at Rs. 3 a kg too. It does this by spending another Rs. 5.30 a kg for APL families. In other words, Karnataka subsidises the rich far more than it does its really poor !

The takeaway from PDS irregularities report is not only that undeserving people are accessing subsidies, but also that the really poor are being short-changed.

Since there is only a constant amount of ration (rice, wheat, sugar, kerosene) from the Central PDS, the Karnataka government devised a new system to be able to distribute ration to about 80% of its population it had declared BPL. Instead of the per family norm followed in every State, Karnataka introduced a new unit system. One unit is any person who is above 10 years of age. Every unit was entitled to four kgs of rice, and no family was allowed to claim rice for more than five units, or five family members. This meant the government never gave more than 20 kgs per month to a family, even though Central law stipulates that every family should get 29 kgs rice per month, whether it has five or two members.

The Karnataka chapter of the Right to Food Campaign has challenged this in the Karnataka High Court. Last year, the court declared the unit system illegal.

The two big sources of loss are "over-allotment loss" and "distribution leakage loss". Over-allotment losses that occur due to the Government not knowing how many families are currently active, this accounts for about 38% (Rs. 54.4 crore) of total losses every month. Distribution or leakage losses account for 39% (Rs. 56.6 crore), which occurs during wholesale transport. The rest is attributed to "active suspect loss," which occurs due to families suspected to be ineligible drawing rations, transport cost losses and stolen subsidy loss. Total loss is Rs. 144.8 cr. every month.

One of the reasons why such leaks occur is because the entire system is deliberately allowed to be opaque and most documentation is manual, leaving huge room for manipulation. The State Government, sometime ago, said that it would usher in a "point of sale system", which computerises the process. The process was mysteriously suspended six months ago.

Apart from various issues that the investigation went into, I found that at field level, most FPSs were open only for 4-6 days a month. Few followed the timings prescribed by the State. Giving bills for the transactions undertaken was more the exception rather than rule. Most FPS owners spoke about the 'mamool' that they had to dole out each month.

If the Government makes up its mind, setting right the system can be done within 6 months. My fear is that in the context of such large scale inefficiency, the proposed Food Security Bill will only widen the system of corruption and maladministration and give our corrupt officials and politicians further fodder to chew on.

(The above article ends here itself.)

[The author of the above article is the Special Investigation Officer on PDS for Lokayukta and Founder of Swami Vivekananda Youth Movement.]

So, in the light of the above mentioned irregularities it is in our national interest to universalise / universalize the Public Distribution System (PDS) in all the Indian states as in the two states of Tamil Nadu (TN) and Chhattisgarh where the Universal PDS is already working very well.

Tanveer

(Syed Tanveeruddin)

01) http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/say-no-to-uid-unique-identification/

02) http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/no-to-uid-npr-natgrid-fingerprint-iris-biometric-info/

03) http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/notouidnpr/

04) http://www.petitiononline.com/nouidnpr/

*

The mess called PDS - How Fair Price Shops have been made Unfair - Dr. R. Balasubramaniam - Star of Mysore, August 4, 2011.pdf

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Dhanteras

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Dhanteras

Observed by

Some Hindus, Buddhists andJains. Other Indians celebrate the cultural aspects.

Type

Religious, North India andNepal

Date

13 Ashwin

2011 date

24 october

Observances

Buying precious metals


Dhanteras (Hindi: धनतेरस Gujarati: ધન તેરસ) is the first day of the five-day Diwali Festival as celebrated in parts of north India. The festival, also known as "Dhantrayodashi" or "Dhanvantari Triodasi", falls on the auspicious thirteenth lunar day of Krishna paksha (dark fortnight) in theHindu calendar month of Ashwin (October/November).[1]
The Dhan in Dhanteras means wealth. On Dhanteras, the "Owl" form of Goddess Laxmi is worshiped to provide prosperity and well being. Dhanteras holds special significance for the business community due to the customary purchases of precious metals on this day (see Traditions below).

[edit]Legends

An interesting story about Dhanteras Festival says that, once, the sixteen year old son of King Hima was doomed to die of a snake-bite on the fourth day of his marriage as per his horoscope. So, on the fourth day of his marriage, his young wife did not allow him to sleep. She laid out gold ornaments and lots of silver coins in a big heap at the entrance of her husband's boudoir and lighted innumerable lamps all over the place. And she went on telling stories and singing songs. When Yama, the god of Death arrived there in the guise of a Serpent his eyes got blinded by the dazzle of those brilliant lights and he could not enter the Prince's chamber. So he climbed on top of the heap of ornaments andcoins and sat there the whole night listening to the melodious songs. In the morning he quietly went away. Thus the young wife saved her husband from the clutches of death. Since then this day of Dhanteras came to be known as the day of "Yamadeepdaan" and lamps are kept burning throughout the night in reverential adoration to Yama, the god of Death.
According to another popular legend, when the Gods and demons churned the ocean for Amrita or nectar, Dhanvantari (the physician of the Gods and an incarnation of Vishnu) emerged carrying a jar of the elixir on the day of Dhanteras.

[edit]Preparations

To mark the auspicious day, houses and business premises are renovated and decorated. Entrances are made colorful with traditional motifsof Rangoli designs to welcome the Goddess of Wealth and Prosperity. To indicate her long-awaited arrival, small footprints are drawn with riceflour and vermilion powder all over the houses. Lamps are kept burning all through the night.

[edit]Traditions

On Dhanteras Hindus consider it auspicious to purchase gold or silver articles or at least one or two new utensils. It is believed that new"Dhan" or some form of precious metal is a sign of good luck. "Laxmi Puja" is performed in the evenings when tiny Diyas of clay are lit to drive away the shadows of evil spirits. "Bhajans", devotional songs in praise of Goddess Laxmi, are also sung.

[edit]Celebrations

Dhanteras is celebrated with gusto and enthusiasm. "Lakshmi Puja" is performed in the evenings when tiny diyas of clay are lit to drive away the shadows of evil spirits. Bhajans, devotional songs in praise of Goddess Laxmi, are sung and "Naivedya" of traditional sweets is offered to the Goddess. There is a peculiar custom in Maharashtra to lightly pound dry coriander seeds with jaggery and offer as Naivedya.
In villages, cattle are adorned and worshiped by farmers as they form the main source of their income. In south India, cows are offered, particularly, a special veneration because they are thought of as incarnations of Goddess Lakshmi.

[edit]See also


[edit]References

*

This article uses bare URLs for citations. Please consider adding full citations so that the article remains verifiable in the future. Several templates and the Reflinks tool are available to assist in formatting. (August 2011)

  1. ^ http://in.reuters.com/article/topNews/idINIndia-43154820091014

[edit]External links


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About Dhanteras

  Dhanteras falls on the thirteenth day of the month of ashwin. The word "Dhan" means wealth. As such this day of the five-day diwali festival has a great importance for the rich mercantile community of western India. Houses and business premises are renovated and decorated. Entrances are made colorful with lovely traditional motifs of rangoli designs to welcome the goddess of wealth and prosperity. To indicate her long-awaited arrival, small footprints are drawn with rice flour and vermilion powder all over the houses. Lamps are kept burning all through the nights. On this auspicious day women purchase some gold or silver or at least one or two new utensils. Pooja is performed in the evenings when tiny diyas of clay are lighted to drive away the shadows of evil spirits. "Bhajans"-devotional songs- are sung in praise of Goddess Lakshmi.

  Dhanteras is also known as Dhantrayodashi, and takes place two days before Diwali, in honour of Dhanavantri, the physician of the gods and an incarnation of Vishnu.

  The legend of Samudramanthan is at the heart of these celebrations. Lord Indra was cursed by sage Durvasa that "The pride of wealth has entered his head and let Lakshmi leave him." On account of Durvasa's curse, Lakshmi left Indra and went away. As Lakshmi is the goddess of power, bravery, enthusiasm and radiance left, Devendra's life became miserable. The demons that were waiting for such an opportunity invaded heaven, defeated Indra. He lost his kingdom and hid out of the sight of the demons.

  A number of years passed. Indra's teacher Brihaspati thought of finding a way out for Indra's troubles. He went with the gods to Brahma, who went to Vishnu, A way was found out of it. The sea of milk was to be churned. It was a very difficult job. Therefore the friendship of the demons and get their assistance was required. Mandara Mountain was a churning rod and Vasuki, the king of the serpents, as a rope.

  WWhen the sea will be churned ambrosia will be produced. The gods must drink it and become immortal. It will then be possible for gods to defeat the demons. When the sea is churned, Lakshmi who has disappeared will appear again. Her grace will be bestowed.The clever Brihaspati managed to strike a friendship with the demons who agreed in the hope of getting ambrosia and wealth. After initial difficulties posed by the sinking of mount Mandara into the milky sea which was set right by Lord Vishnu who took the form of a tortoise and hoisted it on his back, the churning started.

  First, Kalakuta, a dreadful poison was produced which Lord Shiva drank much to the relief of the gods and demons. Due to Vishnu's continued encouragement, gods and demons continued churning the sea. Then a horse by name Uchaishravas, Kalpavriksha had the power to grant what is wished, and Kamdhenu and other celestial articles took shape. When the sea continued to be churned the Apsara were born.

  After that in the midst of the waves of the sea of milk, a goddess with heavenly looks came into view. She was standing on a fully blossomed lotus. Wearing a lotus garland in the neck, she was holding a lotus in her hand. She was attractive and was radiantly smiling, she was Lakshmi.

  The sages began reciting hymns in praise of her. Gandharvas sang. Apsaras danced. The elephants on either side sprinkled sacred holy Ganga water on the goddess and bathed her. Because the elephants sprinkled holy water on her, she acquired the name of Gajalakshmi. Because she was born in the sea of milk, she was called Samudratanya. The king of the sea appeared in his natural form and comforted Lakshmi as a daughter. He presented her with attractive clothes and jewels. He handed to her a garland of lotus flowers. While everybody was looking in surprise, Lakshmi put the garland around the neck of Vishnu. Then she looked at Indra kindly, he acquired an extraordinary radiance.

  The gods and demons continued to churn the ocean for Amrut or nectar, Finally Dhanavantri emerged carrying a jar of the elixir (ambrosia). Both the asuras and the devas wanted the ambrosia, but finally Vishnu managed to give the immortal nectar to the gods and the asuras where defeated. Thus the churning of the ocean resulted in the immortality of the devas and was the reason for Lakshmi's emergence.

  Another interesting story about this day is of the sixteen year old son of King Hima. As per his horoscope he was doomed to die by a snake-bite on the fourth day of his marriage. On that particular fourth day of his marriage his young wife did not allow him to sleep. She laid all the ornaments and lots of gold and silver coins in a big heap at the entrance of her husband's boudoir and lighted innumerable lamps all over the place. And she went on telling stories and singing songs. When Yam, the god of death arrived there in the guise of a serpent his eyes got blinded by that dazzle of those brilliant lights and he could not enter the prince's chamber. So he climbed on top of the heap of the ornaments and coins and sat there whole night listening to the melodious songs. In the morning he quietly went away.

  Thus the young wife saved her husband from the clutches of death. Since then this day of Dhanteras came to be known as the day of "YAMADEEPDAAN" and lamps are kept burning throughout the night in reverential adoration to Yam, the god of death.

 

Dhanteras Images

*Children Enjoying Diwali
*Lakshmi Devi

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Jewelled Lakshmi Ganesha Idols
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http://festivals.tajonline.com/dhanteras.php

The festival of Dhanteras falls in the month of Kartik (Oct-Nov) on the thirteenth day of the dark fortnight. This auspicious day is celebrated two days before the festival of lights, Diwali.

How to Celebrate:

Dhanteras is spent in worshipping Lord Yama – the god of death – to provide prosperity and well being. It is also the day for celebrating wealth, as the word 'Dhan' literally means wealth and 'Tera' comes from the date 13th. People flock to the jewelers and buy gold or silver jewelry or utensils to venerate the occasion of Dhanteras.

Legend behind the Festival:

An ancient legend ascribes the occasion to an interesting story about the 16 year old son of King Hima. His horoscope predicted his death by snake-bite on the fourth day of his marriage. On that particular day, his newly-wed wife did not allow him to sleep. She laid out all her ornaments and lots of gold and silver coins in a heap at the entrance of the sleeping chamber and lit lamps all over the place. Then she narrated stories and sang songs to keep her husband from falling asleep.

When Yama, the god of Death, arrived at the prince's doorstep in the guise of a Serpent, his eyes were dazzled and blinded by the brilliance of the lamps and the jewelry. Yam could not enter the Prince's chamber, so he climbed on top of the heap of gold coins and sat there the entire night listening to the stories and songs. In the morning, he silently went away.

Thus, the young prince was saved from the clutches of death by the cleverness of his new bride, and the day came to be celebrated as Dhanteras. It is also know as 'Yamadeepdaan' as the ladies of the house light earthen lamps or 'deep' and these are kept burning throughout the night glorifying Yama, the god of Death.

The Myth of Dhanavantri:

Another legend says, in the cosmic battle between the gods and the demons when both churned the ocean for 'amrit' or divine nectar, Dhanavantri – the physician of the gods and an incarnation of Vishnu – emerged carrying a pot of the elixir. So, according to this mythological tale, the word Dhanteras comes from the name Dhanavantri, the divine doctor.

http://hinduism.about.com/od/diwalifestivaloflights/p/dhanteras.htm

23 OCT, 2011, 02.36PM IST,

Next week is the time for wide and wild swings in the market, RBI policy eyed: Ram Chotwani, LKP Securities Ltd


Read more on »reserve bank of india|nifty|LKP Securities Ltd

Next week is the time for wide and wild swings in the market, RBI policy eyed: Ram Chotwani, LKP Securities Ltd

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23 OCT, 2011, 02.36PM IST,

Next week is the time for wide and wild swings in the market, RBI policy eyed: Ram Chotwani, LKP Securities Ltd

23 OCT, 2011, 02.36PM IST,

Next week is the time for wide and wild swings in the market, RBI policy eyed: Ram Chotwani, LKP Securities Ltd


Read more on »reserve bank of india|nifty|LKP Securities Ltd

Next week is the time for wide and wild swings in the market, RBI policy eyed: Ram Chotwani, LKP Securities Ltd

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RELATED ARTICLES



Friday the 21st Oct 2011, will not go down in history as Black Friday, however it will bring out a message to all the market participants that the current situation is really grim and warrants some serious attention to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy on Tuesday.

For facts, the Nifty ended 1 % lower week on week. Once again bears wiped out all the hard work put up by bulls that pushed the market on the brink of a 5,200 breakout earlier.

I expect Nifty to remain in a very narrow range on Monday before the important announcement of RBI's policy on Tuesday, from where it can take the medium term direction.

Another hike in interest rates will invite the bears to test at least the earlier lows, whereas if the RBI keeps the interest rate constant, it will give a chance to bulls to break the resistance of 5,175 and rally further.

Speculation has already increased, which is clearly visible in FII's stats, where-in, buying of almost 5,000 crores is seen signaling certainty of directional rally. This is why very heavy buying is witnessed in options due to which November options premium has increased despite the Nifty remaining in narrow a 100 point range.

This is the time when you witness increase in options volumes, when long strangles and straddles are initiated.

As per options scenario, 4800 put holds the highest total open interest, whereas 5400 call holds highest total open interest, this gives you a strong indication of market to remain in wild range for the week ahead.

Technically speaking Nifty has strong support near 4950 levels, which can be broken if RBI's hikes the interest rates, which will invite bears to retest the previous low 4730, whereas Nifty has very strong resistance place in the zone of 5175, which can be taken out from the upside if RBI's keeps the interest rates normal and after that Nifty can see rally towards 5330 levels

I believe, markets can see wild swings in the coming week before we see some indication of stability.

As the old saying goes; things are darkest before the dawn.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/analysis/next-week-is-the-time-for-wide-and-wild-swings-in-the-market-rbi-policy-eyed-ram-chotwani-lkp-securities-ltd/articleshow/10458836.cms

Amicus report lays the ground for chargesheeting Narendra Modi

VIDYA SUBRAHMANIAM
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The HinduThe report of the amicus curiae in the Zakia Jafri case has laid the ground for Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi to be charge-sheeted for his alleged role in the 2002 anti-Muslim Gujarat pogrom. File photo

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SIT will have to place my report before trial court: amicus curiaeGujarat police officer implicates Modi in riotsCID pins financial irregularity charges on Sanjiv Bhatt, BrarMonitoring of Gujarat riot cases to continue for a few more months: Supreme CourtPolice officer's charge against Narendra Modi also raises questions about SITTrial court must hear riot charge against Modi: Supreme CourtBhatt arrest a warning to witnesses in Zakia case, say rights organisationsCharges against me are false: ModiEfforts to implicate Modi back to square oneOnce probe is over, it's for trial court to take charge: BenchI am totally disappointed: ZakiaSC order on Modi: chronology of eventsPolitical drumbeats drown out legal triumph'I will not allow the victims to be let down'Go beyond SIT report on Jaffrey case, court tells amicus curiae"Too early to talk of clean chit or indictment"

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crime, law and justicecrime
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Rejects SIT's decision to close case against Gujarat CM

The report of Raju Ramachandran, the amicus curiae in the Zakia Jafri case, has laid the ground for Narendra Modi to be charge-sheeted for his alleged role in the 2002 anti-Muslim Gujarat pogrom.

The report is still confidential, though it has now been shared with the Special Investigation Team set up by the Supreme Court to investigate and prosecute cases stemming from the 2002 violence in which more than 1200 persons were killed.

According to informed sources in Ahmedabad, who briefed The Hindu on the report's contents, the report strongly disagrees with the SIT's view that no case against the Gujarat Chief Minister was made out. It says that only the cross-examination of senior Gujarat police officers, including Sanjiv Bhatt — who stated that he was present when Mr. Modi instructed police officials to allow Hindus to vent their anger — could establish whether the Chief Minister was innocent or guilty.

Significantly, the report also says that Mr. Bhatt's statement was made probable by the presence of two Ministers in the Ahmedabad Police Control Room (PCR) at the time Muslims were being attacked.

If the trial court accepts Mr. Ramachandran's view, the sources said, the stage will have been set for the prosecution of the Chief Minister under various sections of the IPC, among them, 153 A (statements promoting enmity between communities), 153 B (imputations and assertions prejudicial to national integration) 505 (statements conducing to public mischief) and 166 (public servant disobeying a direction of the law with the intent to cause injury).

Under Section 166, any public servant who disobeys a direction of the law as to how he should conduct himself as a public servant and knowing the act will cause injury is liable to be punished with imprisonment for a term extending to one year. As the chief executive in control of the administration, Mr. Modi was especially under obligation to quell the riots, the sources said.

The SIT was tasked by the Supreme Court to investigate Ms. Jafri's complaint against Mr. Modi and 61 others. The Court subsequently asked Mr. Ramachandran independently to evaluate the reports filed by the SIT by interacting with witnesses.

The sources said the SIT recommended closing the case against Mr. Modi on the grounds that police officer Bhatt, who was vital to fixing blame on the Chief Minister, was a controversial and unreliable witness. The SIT also concluded that there was no material on record to show interference by the two Ministers who were present in the PCR when Muslims were being attacked across Ahmedabad.

In his testimony to the SIT, Mr. Bhatt had said he was present at the February 27, 2002 meeting where Mr. Modi instructed top police officials to allow Hindus to "vent their anger" against Muslims. The meeting was held late in the evening at the Chief Minister's Gandhinagar residence. The SIT said none of the other officers present at the meeting had corroborated Mr. Bhatt's presence.

The sources said the amicus disagreed with the SIT's conclusions, arguing that evidence has to be weighed and not counted, and this can happen only when Mr. Bhatt and others present at the meeting are cross-examined in the trial court. The amicus' view was that it would be premature and presumptuous to close the case against Mr. Modi without an adversarial party putting the other officers to rigorous questioning: Mr. Bhatt could turn out to have lied. Equally, other officers present could turn out to have lied.

The amicus was in fact credited with the view that the presence in the police control room of two Ministers unconnected to the Home portfolio probablised Mr. Bhatt's statement. More so because the SIT had itself suggested that the Ministers had the Chief Minister's blessings (Tehelka magazine which scooped the SIT report quoted Mr. Raghavan as saying that the presence of the two Ministers fuelled speculation that they were there with Mr. Modi's blessings.)

If the view of the amicus is rejected by the SIT, Ms. Jafri and her co-complainant Teesta Setalvad will have the option to contest it in the trial court. The court can also form its own, independent opinion on the views of the amicus.

Keywords: Zakia Jafri case, 2002 Gujarat riots, Ehsan Jafri murder, Gulberg Society massacre, Gujarat riots case, SIT probe, Sanjiv Bhatt, Narendra Modi


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SIT will have to place my report before trial court: amicus curiaeGujarat police officer implicates Modi in riotsCID pins financial irregularity charges on Sanjiv Bhatt, BrarMonitoring of Gujarat riot cases to continue for a few more months: Supreme CourtPolice officer's charge against Narendra Modi also raises questions about SITTrial court must hear riot charge against Modi: Supreme CourtBhatt arrest a warning to witnesses in Zakia case, say rights organisationsCharges against me are false: ModiEfforts to implicate Modi back to square oneOnce probe is over, it's for trial court to take charge: BenchI am totally disappointed: ZakiaSC order on Modi: chronology of eventsPolitical drumbeats drown out legal triumph'I will not allow the victims to be let down'Go beyond SIT report on Jaffrey case, court tells amicus curiae"Too early to talk of clean chit or indictment"

TOPICS

IndiaGujarat
crime, law and justicecrime
inquiry
judiciary (system of justice)
justice and rights
trials
politics
unrest, conflicts and warriots



http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2563188.ece

23 OCT, 2011, 06.59AM IST, ASHISH GUPTA,ET BUREAU

Gold always a good option, especially in times of uncertainty

Gold always a good option, especially in times of uncertainty

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Among the various asset classes, gold has probably been the most secured one. Investments in gold have yielded consistent and assured returns, especially in volatile times. Gold has always come out as a trusted pillar to fall back on.

During the recent upheavals in the global markets, including the US downgrading and the Euro zone issues, investors started ploughing money into gold. Consequently the demand for gold went up. Also, as there were no other comparably safe assets to invest in, the price of gold skyrocketed. Gold has been up for 10 years in a row.

According to some analysts, going by the present trend, and given the fact that the festival season is on here, the price of gold will escalate further and may touch around Rs 29,000 to Rs 30,000 per 10 gm. This would mainly be because of the high internal demand and the fancy of consumers here for gold. The marriage season, in particular, fuels the demand.

Gold is still the best hedge against volatility. The price of gold witnessed extreme volatility in September, following the deepening European debt crisis. The price touched a high of $1,924 and a low of $1,524 per ounce in September.

India is a leading consumer of gold. In fact, gold is now the second-largest import, after crude. According to theWorld Gold Council, India's gold imports rose by 60 percent in April-June 2011 from a year ago, as investors parked money in gold as a safeguard against inflation. Gold imports, which stood at 550 tonne for the January-June period, could cross the 1,000 tonne mark this year. The total gold import was about 950 tonne in 2010.

Gold is expected to perform best among commodities next year and may rally to a record level as investors seek to safeguard their wealth against slowing economic growth. It has gone beyond the 2012 target for bullion by 35 percent to $2,200 an ounce. Gold is considered a safe haven. It is the closest commodity to a global reserve currency and has been the most resilient one in the past recessions. According to many analysts, gold will continue to extend its rally next year as Europe struggles through the debt crisis. Globally, central banks and investors accelerate purchases in order to protect their assets from weaker currencies.

So, what should the small investors do? How do they make best use of this situation ?

Considering the fact that purchase of physical gold as an investment is a tedious and risky option, a small investor can go in for a gold exchange-traded fund (ETF). This way, he can dabble in gold without actually owning the metal. Further, one can start with small investments and build the positions gradually. There is no need to make huge investments in one go.

An investor only needs to have a demat account with a depository participant to invest in an ETF. The exit is also easy as one just needs to pass on the instructions to the depositary participant. There are no charges payable, which may otherwise be payable in case of sale of gold. Gold ETFs provide a convenient, simple and cost-effective way of investing in gold. As the price movement is volatile, one can invest a small amount on a regular basis. This way, the rupee cost averaging will help in building a decent portfolio over time. Moreover, it will minimise losses in case the price falls in future.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/features/financial-times/gold-always-a-good-option-especially-in-times-of-uncertainty/articleshow/10459940.cms
Food inflation, as measured by Wholesale Price Index (WPI), was at 9.32 per cent in the previous week.

According to the study, nearly 69 per cent of the 2,000 respondents said that they avoid shopping altogether or shop only for those things that are absolutely needed. Moreover, 65 per cent said that they have bought restricted gift items and sweets this Diwali.

Further, over 87 per cent said that monthly grocery bills have jumped to about Rs 4,500, compared to Rs 2,000 in the last several months.

Over 89 per cent of respondents also mentioned, "It's not just clothes that are costlier; sweets and savouries are also priced higher by 25-30 per cent this year....dry fruit & sweets are the most expensive item of Diwali. So, everybody is feeling the pinch of rising cost of every commodity."

Also, respondents said that the price of gold being a big deterrent, alternatives to the yellow metal need to be found.

The survey further said that Delhi ranked first in curtailing expenses followed by Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Chandigarh, Kolkata and Chennai.

Agnivesh, Team Anna in war of words over funds

PTI
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The HinduA file photo of Team Anna member Arvind Kejriwal and social activist Swami Agnivesh. Former Team Anna member Swami Agnivesh has alleged that money was deposited in the trust run by Mr. Kejriwal from which the names of major team members were missing.

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Questions were raised on Sunday about the use of funds donated by the public to Team Anna with Swami Agnivesh alleging that money was deposited in the trust run by Arvind Kejriwal from which the names of major team members were missing, a claim dismissed as made "out of anger".

Besides Team Anna detractor Swami Agnivesh, another former member 'Waterman' Rajinder Singh also raised the issue urging Mr. Kejriwal to come clean on the controversy regarding donations to Anna Hazare movement, saying he could not see transparency in the matter as Team Anna preaches.

Team Anna dismissed the allegations, saying Swami Agnivesh might be levelling such accusations "out of anger". Swami Agnivesh was removed from the Team following the surfacing of a video clip which purportedly showed him asking a person to deal strongly with Mr. Hazare.

They said all details regarding their accounts will be put on the website of Public Cause Research Foundation (PCRF), by this month-end after a special audit. Activist Kiran Bedi, who is facing allegations of overcharging institutions on travel bills, alleged that there was a "pattern to defame" Team Anna members and said "hang some of us if that helps".

Swami Agnivesh, who had on Saturday alleged that Mr. Kejriwal has siphoned off over Rs. 80 lakh donated by people for Mr. Hazare's agitation by diverting it to a trust run by him, said Mr. Hazare does not have his name in the PCRF run by Mr. Kejriwal.

"Even Justice Santosh Hegde, who has a clean image does not have his name in the trust. So, the main members of the team were not part of the Trust and the old trust where Kejriwal and his members were part... the money was deposited in their name," he alleged.

"I am not blaming Kejriwal that he is deliberately doing so and does not want transparency. I am also not saying there is some fraud and corruption in accounts," Mr. Angivesh said, insisting that his protest is only for transparency.

Claiming that Mr. Hazare was keen to have a new trust and include new members, Swami Agnivesh said he wanted to complete the audit by October 15 and had asked Mr. Kejriwal to put on the website the details of donations received by them in the core committee meeting.

Maintaining that his protest in only for transparency, he said, "I have said this (to give details of accounts) because if they will do it as soon as possible, there won't be any doubt and question. If they will delay, people would question why the accounts are not given".

"India Against Corruption campaign is about transparency. When we are fighting against corruption, then transparency is main and important part of it, accountability is second part of it," he said.

"In the middle there were questions raised on Indian Vision Foundation and on Kiran Bedi's flight fare controversy and all then it has become more important to check the accounts of old trusts," he said.

Swami Angivesh had on Saturday alleged that all donations which were made for the India Against Corruption (IAC) were diverted to PCRF run by Mr. Kejriwal and that the latter was delaying the opening of a bank account in the name of IAC.

Maintaining that they were "transparent" in their functioning, Mr. Kejriwal's associate and Team Anna member Manish Sisodia said, "Our accounts are already on the website. We have conducted a special audit for the last six months and by the month end we are putting the details on the website."

On Swami Agnivesh, he said, "We have no animosity with Swami Agnivesh. He could have said something out of anger. It's not in our custom to rebut against anything that an elderly says.

He is a good person and we all respect him."

He said Mr. Hazare was aware that donations were being deposited in the Foundation account and nothing was hid from him.

Reacting to the developments, Ms. Bedi said, "There is obviously a pattern to defame every member of Team Anna. It has been systematic from day one."

"Team Anna is paying a personal cost for raising national concerns on rampant corruption and voter awareness to ensure the passing of the bill in Parliament," she said.

She said this only underscores the need to stay focussed on the Winter Session of Parliament and ensure that the Jan Lokpal Bill is enacted.

Ms. Bedi said the Hazare movement was of millions and there was a need for staying united. "After that hang some of us if that helps. If my saving for poor by means I followed is wrong I be punished. Same Lokpal can punish me. Distraction is being manipulated," she said.

Mr. Singh, who quit Team Anna recently following differences, urged Team Anna to come clean on the controversy, saying he could not see transparency in the matter as Team Anna preaches.

He alleged that Team Anna could have erred in the matter as they did in plunging into "party politics. "They preach transparency but in this case, we cannot see any transparency. They should come clean on this. We are not super humans and we all make mistakes. But the moment you realise it, one should correct it and come out clean."

"There are doubts about the Hazare movement. A lot of time has been lost before getting things in order. One should come clean as fast as one can because government may use pressure to curb the movement," Mr. Singh said, adding accounts were not discussed in the Core Committee meetings.

At the same time he said, "They might have erred in this matter like the way they plunged into party politics. All movements are political but taking active part in party politics is a different thing."

Asked whether the Hazare movement has lost its way, Mr. Singh said it started with one particular purpose but now it seems, it has other purposes.

Keywords: Agnivesh-Team Anna spat, India Against Corruption, funds misuse charge


http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2564981.ece

Return to industrial lethargy

C. P. CHANDRASEKHAR
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The Hindu
As the world braces itself for another recession, India needs to ponder whether it too faces the prospect of another industrial slowdown. Since the dynamism that characterised services in recent years spread to industry only after 2003-04, this could imply a shift away from the high-growth trajectory the government celebrates.
One reason to suspect that this may already be occurring is the trend in the lead indicator, the Index of Industrial Production. That index suggests that the year-on-year growth of manufacturing production during the April-August 2011-12 period had slowed to a substantially lower 6.0 per cent, when compared to the 9.2 per cent recorded during the corresponding period of the previous year. What is even more disturbing is that the index of manufacturing production, despite fluctuations, has remained close to its July 2010 level for more than a year.
It is in this background that we need to look at evidence on the financial performance of the private corporate business sector released by the Reserve Bank of India. While covering a varying number of companies (each year) from the large industrial sector, this dataset is known to cover a substantial proportion of that segment in terms of paid-up capital. It, therefore, provides an indication of how the corporate sector has been performing over the years since 2004-05, which is when India is seen as having transited to a higher GDP growth strategy of 8 per cent plus. That shift was partly due the spread of growth that was concentrated in services to industrial production in general and manufacturing in particular. So if industry is losing momentum and profitability, that trajectory itself may prove transient.
What the evidence (presented in the accompanying Chart) shows is that from the point of view of corporate profitability, there have been two identifiably different periods since 2004-05. The years of celebration began in 2004-05 and stretched to 2007-08. During these years the profit margins on sales rose significantly, from 8.3 to 11.8 per cent. This ensured high year-on-year rates of growth of profits when sales growth was above some threshold (as in 2006-07), and reasonable rates of profit growth in years when sales growth was normal. However, in a year like 2007-08, when average profit margins peaked, the growth in aggregate profits was held back because of higher outflows on account of interest payments. The threshold for growth in sales required for high profit growth was considerably raised when the interest burden carried by the corporate sector was high.
The second period began in 2008-09 and is still continuing. Because of the global recession, 2008-09 was a bad year. As a result of the impact of the recession, profit margins fell, sales growth dipped and, for a combination of reasons varying from a liquidity crunch to higher inventory accumulation, the interest burden carried by the corporate sector rose significantly. The result was a collapse of the rate of growth of profits into negative territory. Industry experienced a profit-squeeze of sorts. While things have improved since that year, partly through a rise in profit margins aided by state subsidies and tax concessions, till 2010-11, nominal profit growth had not returned to the levels of the pre-crisis period despite high inflation.
It is in this background that we must assess prospects for the near future. The adverse effects on demand of domestic inflation that has ruled high for many months now are likely to be increasingly felt as households adjust their budgets. With that inflation substantially impacting food articles, a larger share of domestic income would be diverted to food consumption and other priorities such as fuel and transportation. As a result the balance available for consumption of manufactures is likely to be squeezed, with attendant implications for demand.
What could be even more damaging is a sharp fall in credit-financed consumption and housing investment by households. This could result from the sheer inadequacy of credit. With evidence of a growing proportion of defaults in the retail loan portfolio of banks, they have been forced to turn cautious. Thus credit flow is being affected adversely from the supply side for housing and for purchases of goods such as automobiles and durables. But credit offtake is being affected adversely on the demand side as well. It is not jus that real income erosion is pushing some potential borrowers out of the market. The sharp rise in the equated monthly instalments on loans as a result of the anti-inflationary interest rate hikes introduced by the Reserve Bank of India, has made credit-financed consumption "unaffordable". In sum, domestic demand and sales are set for a significant slowdown. To add, with more certainty that the global economy would experience a "second dip", exports are bound to lose the buoyancy they have shown in recent months.
Thus, the rate of growth of sales is bound to fall below threshold in the coming months. To add, profit margins are likely to be further squeezed because slowing demand and rising inventories are unleashing competitive price reductions at a time when costs are higher. Finally, with interest rates having risen hugely, those firms that are unable to source finance from global markets would experience a sharp increase in their interest burden. The net result would be a sharp decline in profit growth, with a return to growth rates in negative territory.
All this occurs at a time when the government's ability to intervene to support profit margins, as it did in 2008-09, has been eroded by its own policy stance. Unwilling to tax surpluses and adequately penalise tax evaders, and caught in its obsession with reining in fiscal deficits, expenditure increases at the margin have come to rely on windfall gains such as sale of spectrum or big-ticket divestment of public sector equity. Politically and economically the government is not in a position to resort to such measures. Thus one factor that has supported profits, domestic and foreign, on India soil is on partial hold. This promises to adversely affect manufacturing profitability and depress profit growth.
With demand and profits under pressure, industry's contribution to India's growth story is likely to be significantly smaller. And, with the global economy in turmoil, services, especially those dependent on exports, are bound to be less buoyant. It is difficult to understand, therefore, the economics (as opposed to the arithmetic) underlying the Planning Commission's optimism about moving the economy to an even higher 9 or 9 per cent plus rate of growth over the XIIth Plan.
Keywords: Industrial growth, economic slowdown, global economy, economic crisis, fall in profits
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/Chandrasekhar/article2564649.ece?homepage=true

Gold price up 26 times in 32 years

Published: Sunday, Oct 23, 2011, 17:47 IST

By Himansh Dhomse | Place: Ahmedabad | Agency: DNA

*

Rs1,000/10 gm in '79, gold is now Rs27,000

Reuters


Gone are the days when it took months, sometimes years, for gold prices to increase by Rs1,000 per 10 gm. But it is very different now. The price of the yellow metal touched and crossed Rs24,000 per 10 gram in August 2011 and again jumped by another Rs1,000 in just a few days. In fact, in August this year, gold prices have increased twice by Rs1,000 in one day.

After a lot of volatility in prices, the yellow metal is trading at around Rs27,000 per 10 gram in Ahmedabad these days. With Dhanteras falling on Monday, experts say gold is likely to trade that day at around Rs26,500 to Rs27,000 per 10 gm. Talking about the prices of the yellow metal after Diwali, some traders said that because of the global turmoil, gold prices may touch a new peak of Rs30,000 per 10 gram.

Going by past experience, the possibility of gold touching the new peak of Rs30,000 per 10 gm is quite real. As per the gold rate data available from Choksi Mahajan Association of Ahmedabad, some 86 years back (in 1925), gold was sold for Rs21 for one tola (1 tola = 11.66 grams).

At the time of Independence, it was selling at Rs100 per tola but after Independence, gold prices took 32 years to touch the first Rs1000 level. The yellow metal crossed the price of Rs1,000 per 10 gram in October 1979, perhaps for the first time in recorded history.

Interestingly, in the next 32 years, prices of the yellow metal shot up 26-fold. From 1979 to 2011, gold prices increased from Rs1,000 per 10 gram to Rs28,000 per 10 gram in 2011. This year alone, gold prices rose by Rs1000 per 10 gm five times in just eight months. Of this, the last three thousands were added in just 22 days!

In the last three-four decades, bullion has seen many changes in its price trends. Earlier, gold prices witnessed a rise of Rs1,000 in years; now this happens in just months. Recently, gold prices have occasionally risen by Rs1,000 in just a few days. Before the 1980s, prices of the yellow metal were totally dependent on domestic demand but slowly, due to globalisation, gold prices are now decided in London and the whole world follows.

Another change has been seen in the buying pattern. Earlier, consumers used to buy gold or gold jewellery in kilos. Today, however, people buy it on what they can afford. "Ever since 2008 when gold prices touched Rs12,000 per 10 gram, people started buying the yellow metal on the basis of what they can spend. For instance, earlier, during marriages, people used to buy 2 kg to 4 kg of gold at one go. Now they ask for jewellery worth of Rs1.5 lakh to Rs2 lakh. This change has been observed in the last 4-5 years," said Shanti Patel, president of Gem & Jewellery Trade Council of India.

Currently, gold is being traded at around Rs26,100 per 10 gram but it is expected to rise to Rs30,000 per 10 gm soon. "Gold prices are stable for the moment and it is likely to trade at around Rs27,000 per 10 gram during Diwali. But we expecting its prices to rise to the new level of Rs30,000 very soon," said city-based bullion trader and analyst, Girish Choksi.

According to Choksi, experts are predicting that gold will rise to the level of $2,500 an ounce in the international market. "The metal is traded at the level of $1,700 an ounce; if it rises to even $2,100 an ounce in the next six months, gold prices in India will cross the level of Rs30,000 per 10 gram," he said.


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